The 2026 Senate Midterm Map Seems Rough for Democrats

Republicans clinched retain watch over of the Senate on Tuesday, developing a spirited topic for Democrats to conquer in 2026.

Earlier this week, Republicans flipped three Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, tipping the chamber’s retain watch over some distance off from the Democrats. As of Friday, the Republicans hang 52 Senate seats and the Democrats forty five.

Before this week’s election, Democrats held a slim majority of 51 seats (including four independents who caucus with the occasion), whereas the Republicans had 49.

Democrats trailed Republicans in all political races on Tuesday, with President-elect Donald Trump winning the White Residence, Republicans securing a Senate majority and the GOP presumably maintaining a GOP majority within the Residence. No longer all Residence races had been called as of Friday morning.

Unlike the Residence, the put candidates are up for reelection every two years, senators help six-one year phrases.

Thirty-three Senate seats are delivery for election on November 3, 2026. Of those, 20 are held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats.

The following states will hang Senate seats up for election that one year: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Fresh Hampshire, Fresh Jersey, Fresh Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.

To flip the Senate in 2026, Democrats would select to obtain all 13 seats and flip on the least three others.

While there are paths for Democrats to stable the bulk, they on the moment seem less likely than Republicans conserving their lead.

The following states are inclined to hang key races within the 2026 Senate elections.

Most likely Seats to Flip

Maine

Maine is a political damage up declare, with Republican Senator Susan Collins and just Senator Angus King representing the declare, which is led by Democratic Governor Janet Mills.

Collins has represented the declare since 1997. She is considered as a life like Republican who spoke out in opposition to Donald Trump for the length of his first length of time.

In her most most traditional election, in 2020, she won the seat with 51 percent of the vote, with the Democratic challenger garnering 42.4 percent. In 2014, she won by an even larger margin, 67 percent to 30.8 percent.

The Maine Senate seat will be a doable path for Democrats to flip a Republican seat, nonetheless given Collins’ long electoral historical past and give a lift to, it isn’t likely.

North Carolina

Republican Senator Thom Tillis has had two aggressive elections within the declare, having won the seat in the starting up in 2014, forty eight.8 percent to Democrat Senator Kay Hagan’s 47.3 percent.

In 2020, Tillis secured forty eight.7 percent of the vote, winning the seat again.

Given North Carolina’s historical past of sign splitting, most lately viewed in this week’s elections when a majority of voters backed Trump for president and Democrat Josh Stein for governor, it is doubtless Democrats might well are trying to flip the declare.

Presumably Contested Democrat-Held Seats

Georgia

In 2020, Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff won a legit Senate runoff election in opposition to Senator David Perdue. Ossoff clinched the seat by garnering 50.6 percent to Perdue’s 49.4 percent.

Ossoff, who will urge for reelection in 2026, is anticipated to face a legit urge in opposition to a Republican candidate. To flip the Senate, it will probably possibly well be most principal for Democrats to retain Ossoff’s seat, although this is inclined to be a intently contested urge.

Michigan

Democratic Senator Gary Peters took space of business in 2015, beating out the Republican challenger by 13.3 percentage capabilities. In 2020, he became reelected by a worthy tighter margin, 49.9 percent to the Republican candidate’s forty eight.2 percent.

Because Peters’ victory margin shrank that one year, it is a seat Republicans might well work to flip. Securing his seat in 2026 might well be principal for the Democratic Social gathering‘s regaining retain watch over of the Senate.

Fresh Hampshire

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen has held her seat in Fresh Hampshire since 2009. In 2020, she secured the seat with an over 15-level lead, whereas in 2014 she had a more in-depth urge, winning 51.5 percent to a Republican challenger’s forty eight.2 percent.

Democrats would select to retain the Fresh Hampshire seat to flip the Senate.

While Fresh Hampshire has two Democratic senators, the declare’s governor, Chris Sununu, and the Legislature are Republican.

Virginia

Democratic Senator Set up Warner assumed space of business in 2009 and can urge for reelection in 2026. He narrowly secured the seat in 2014, with 49.1 percent of the vote versus his Republican challenger’s forty eight.3 percent.

In 2020, he won the declare with 56 percent of the vote.