SpaceX Starlink Orbital Skill and Usable Skill

Microsoft Director and Kymeta board member, Tren Griffin, asked about my estimation of active SpaceX Starlink skill. Here is my clarification of my assignment and prognosis using an estimation of theoretical orbital communication skill as a metric for snapshot prognosis of the Starlink community and world particular person skill.

There are 5147 work Starlink Satellites in orbit. There are about 880 of these are V2 mini. This would perhaps well per chance be about 4267 V1.5 or earlier Starlink satellites. Every satellite has accessible communication footprint on the ground of perchance 800 miles by 800 miles. The diverse antennas and arrays can target a quantity of segments interior that theoretical footprint.

There are 4530 Starlink satellites are active. 4267 v1.5 and V1 Starlink satellites. 4200 V1.5 Starlink have confidence a entire of about 63000 entire Gbps and 266 active V2 mini each and every with 60 Gbps is 15800 Gbps. The total activated SpaceX Starlink skill is about 76,000 Gbps.

This can rob about 2-3 months for the currently in orbit V2 mini satellites to salvage in space and suggested. This shall be about 200-300 per month. Possibly 100 v2 mini-satellites can also suggested by Dec 31, 2023. This would perhaps well per chance be one more 6000 Gbps to 82,000 Gbps.

The total Starlink satellite bandwidth is a theoretical quantity, that I expend for snapshot approximations.

SpaceX can system using 10-15% of this skill.
The US has 1.87% US of the Earth ground assign, however 60% of the total world Starlink prospects. Starlink satellites as a lot as 400 miles start air borders of the US can restful carrier the US. A satellite over Kamloops can restful carrier Seattle. SpaceX is using about 3-4% of its world skill.
There are 1.3 million US prospects and 1 million in the remainder of the arena currently.

The SpaceX aim wants to be to salvage 5X as many customers in the remainder of the arena as their US prospects. IF on the reside of February 2024, all currently in orbit V2 mini are activated then the orbital skill would perhaps well per chance be 4260 V1.5 for 63000 Gbps and 880 V2 mini for 52000 Gbps for a entire of 115000 Gbps. In 2024, there wants to be about 120 launches with each and every carrying 22 V2 mini which will add 158,400 Gbps orbital Starlink skill for a entire of 270,000 Gbps when absolutely active. This would perhaps well per chance be about three instances the 76,000 Gbps currently active even with 230,000 Gbps active by the reside of 2024.

The US is at or reach most utilization 2% of the enviornment mercurial in a suite to carrier the US. The 2% of satellites wait on 1.3 million prospects with 2% of 76,000 Gbps or 1,500 Gbps. By the reside of 2024, US can paddle to 3.9 million prospects and remainder of world can also be 5X that with 19.5 million. If the readily accessible usable skill became once filled out with Asia, Europe and so forth… prospects. Other calculations restrict the utilization to about 10% of the orbital satellite skill. This would perhaps restrict the remainder of world to 4X US stages at 15.6 million. The 4X makes more sense if the conclusion is de facto no prospects are allowed in China, Russia, Iran and some a quantity of worldwide locations. A clean-profitable remainder of world product push or some unusual services and products, enjoy perchance with backhaul earnings or a quantity of exercise) will likely be in a suite to raise out more to raise the remainder of world utilization satellite skill utilization rates.

“The total activated SpaceX Starlink skill is about 90,000 Gbps.”

Is this correct? Is this usable or theoretical skill? To salvage credit on your retort, demonstrate your work.

Additional credit predict: are shipworms genuinely a clam? https://t.co/zhxBn8MVqL

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) December 22, 2023