November Typhoon in Caribbean!
Though essentially the most contemporary traits on the long walk direction of the storm are proper records for the US, AccuWeather forecasters narrate it’s too early to present the all particular on tropical impacts alongside the Gulf cruise. By Alex SosnowskiAccuWeather senior meteorologist Printed Nov 4, 2024 9:47 AM MST|Updated Nov 6, 2024 8:51 PM
Though essentially the most contemporary traits on the long walk direction of the storm are proper records for the US, AccuWeather forecasters narrate it’s too early to present the all particular on tropical impacts alongside the Gulf cruise.
Typhoon Rafael made landfall in Cuba as a Category 3 storm at 4:15 p.m. ET Wednesday in the Cuban province of Artemisa, moral east of Playa Majana, with most sustained winds estimated to be 115 mph.
Flooding rain, negative winds and the probability of flash flooding and mudslides are expected all the draw in which by Cuba. A storm surge of 6-10 feet can happen in parts of the south-facing coastline.
“Steering breezes will handbook the hurricane all the draw in which by Cuba into Wednesday evening,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, “In this zone, waters are sufficiently warm, and disruptive breezes and wind shear will doubtless be low.”
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 3 for Cuba. The RealImpact™ Scale considers the magnitude of rainfall, storm surge, mudslides, flooding and wind, moreover to the industrial impacts on populated areas. The Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Wind Scale finest considers the storm’s wind intensity.
Rafael is anticipated to discover into the Gulf of Mexico and utilize some time as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane ahead of losing some wind intensity due to step by step cooler waters and growing wind shear. Once it enters the Gulf, AccuWeather hurricane experts narrate there are various routes the storm would possibly perchance well rob.
“Once in the Gulf of Mexico, miniature differences in Rafael’s intensity and atmospheric guidance winds would possibly perchance well desire a critical impact on its final discover,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Invoice Deger said.
Rafael and its winds will doubtless be tidy and grand enough to construct rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico, constructing surf and triggering seaside erosion alongside shores. Ought to peaceable the storm discover construct landfall, some coastal flooding is more doubtless to the north and east of the storm discover.
The absolute best likelihood of any U.S. landfall is alongside the central Louisiana cruise. Nonetheless, since guidance breezes would possibly perchance well swap a small bit late this week and this weekend because of the near of a non-tropical storm from the south-central U.S., there’s a wide window as to where or if landfall will happen.
Other conditions rob Rafael westward all the draw in which by the Gulf of Mexico rather then jogging it northward in opposition to the U.S. In this case, the impact on the U.S. would possibly perchance well well be minimal.
“It is moreover conceivable Rafael is torn apart by grand winds high in the ambiance and dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of constructing landfall,” Deger said.
A stronger hurricane would possibly perchance well well also are inclined to discover extra to the east rather then north. In this case, impacts would possibly perchance well well be greater alongside the Florida Gulf cruise, including from storm surge. That is the least doubtless disclose at this level.
In but one other disclose, Rafael would possibly perchance well lose lots wind intensity that it arrives in the U.S. as a tropical depression or wind and rainstorm. Regardless, it’ll no longer be a disclose where a predominant strengthening hurricane makes landfall in the U.S.; rather, it’ll be something much less intense by near of wind intensity. Impacts from rainfall can peaceable be skilled successfully inland.
AccuWeather meteorologists narrate a zone of downpours will secure 22 situation up successfully ahead of Rafael over the southern Atlantic cruise into the weekend. These preceding downpours can trigger incidents of flash flooding, but a repeat of the flooding catastrophe that led up to Helene just isn’t any longer expected.
AccuWeather meteorologists are searching at one other put that would churn out a tropical depression or storm as it approaches the Leeward Islands and moves alongside the northern islands of the Caribbean this week. One other put is being monitored off the cruise of Africa.
Sara is the following title on the record of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic Typhoon season after Rafael.
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